New Seat Details - Aberdeen North

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Aberdeen North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
SNP	18,641	39.1%
CON	13,559	28.5%
LAB	12,033	25.3%
LIB	3,011	6.3%
OTH	403	0.8%
SNP Majority	5,082	10.7%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Aberdeen North: Map

List of old seats forming part of Aberdeen North

Old seat: Aberdeen North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aberdeen North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Aberdeen North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Aberdeen	Bridge of Don	1,767	Aberdeen North	264	154	45	0	0	410	0	14	887
Aberdeen	Dyce / Bucksburn / Danestone	3,277	Aberdeen North	434	356	68	0	0	651	0	26	1,535
Aberdeen	George St / Harbour	9,243	Aberdeen South	1,411	1,860	394	0	0	2,615	0	97	6,377
Aberdeen	Hazlehead / Ashley / Queens Cross	1,022	Aberdeen South	208	69	41	0	0	189	0	12	519
Aberdeen	Hilton / Stockethill	10,336	Aberdeen North	1,240	1,892	200	0	0	2,273	0	89	5,694
Aberdeen	Kingswells / Sheddocksley	10,463	Aberdeen North	1,468	1,318	335	0	0	2,197	0	82	5,400
Aberdeen	Midstocket / Rosemount	6,594	Aberdeen North; Aberdeen South	894	882	164	0	0	1,501	0	36	3,477
Aberdeen	Northfield	11,196	Aberdeen North	1,169	2,126	181	0	0	2,785	0	73	6,334
Aberdeen	Tillydrone / Seaton / Old Aberdeen	8,257	Aberdeen North	1,247	2,368	264	0	0	2,539	0	91	6,509
Aberdeen	Torry / Ferryhill	41	Aberdeen South	6	7	1	0	0	10	0	0	24
	Total	62,196		8,341	11,032	1,693	0	0	15,170	0	520	36,756

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aberdeen North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Aberdeen South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aberdeen South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Aberdeen South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Aberdeen	Airyhall / Broomhill / Garthdee	11,468	Aberdeen South	3,403	1,445	472	0	0	2,344	0	0	7,664
Aberdeen	George St / Harbour	222	Aberdeen South	160	133	25	0	0	167	0	0	485
Aberdeen	Hazlehead / Ashley / Queens Cross	12,134	Aberdeen South	4,131	1,032	668	0	0	2,367	0	0	8,198
Aberdeen	Kincorth / Loirston	12,103	Aberdeen South	2,685	1,952	352	0	0	2,545	0	0	7,534
Aberdeen	Kingswells / Sheddocksley	168	Aberdeen North	42	25	6	0	0	38	0	0	111
Aberdeen	Lower Deeside	11,216	Aberdeen South	3,902	907	486	0	0	1,904	0	0	7,199
Aberdeen	Midstocket / Rosemount	3,669	Aberdeen South	955	693	128	0	0	1,057	0	0	2,833
Aberdeen	Torry / Ferryhill	13,358	Aberdeen South	3,468	2,956	464	0	0	3,573	0	0	10,461
	Total	64,338		18,746	9,143	2,601	0	0	13,995	0	0	44,485

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aberdeen South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Gordon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Gordon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Gordon				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Aberdeen	Bridge of Don	12,501	Aberdeen North	3,142	1,387	824	0	0	3,027	0	0	8,380
Aberdeen	Dyce / Bucksburn / Danestone	11,213	Aberdeen North	2,792	1,505	722	0	0	2,669	0	0	7,688
Aberdeenshire	East Garioch	7,051	Gordon and Deeside	2,318	407	663	0	0	1,776	0	0	5,164
Aberdeenshire	Ellon and District	11,448	Banff and Buchan	3,145	708	921	0	0	3,083	0	0	7,857
Aberdeenshire	Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford	8,062	Gordon and Deeside	2,511	454	749	0	0	1,932	0	0	5,646
Aberdeenshire	Inverurie and District	10,557	Gordon and Deeside	2,843	926	926	0	0	2,486	0	0	7,181
Aberdeenshire	Mid Formartine	11,064	Aberdeen North; Gordon and Deeside	3,481	718	779	0	0	2,906	0	0	7,884
Aberdeenshire	Turriff and District	1	Banff and Buchan	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Aberdeenshire	West Garioch	5,869	Gordon and Deeside	1,630	234	646	0	0	1,375	0	0	3,885
	Total	77,766		21,862	6,339	6,230	0	0	19,254	0	0	53,685

The full details of these calculations are given on the Gordon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Aberdeen North

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Aberdeen North
Aberdeen	Bridge of Don	1,501	Aberdeen North	264	154	45	0	0	410	0	14	887
Aberdeen	Bridge of Don	12,258	Gordon	3,142	1,387	824	0	0	3,027	0	0	8,380
Aberdeen	Dyce / Bucksburn / Danestone	2,596	Aberdeen North	434	356	68	0	0	651	0	26	1,535
Aberdeen	Dyce / Bucksburn / Danestone	11,244	Gordon	2,792	1,505	722	0	0	2,669	0	0	7,688
Aberdeen	Hilton / Stockethill	9,623	Aberdeen North	1,240	1,892	200	0	0	2,273	0	89	5,694
Aberdeen	Kingswells / Sheddocksley	9,125	Aberdeen North	1,468	1,318	335	0	0	2,197	0	82	5,400
Aberdeen	Kingswells / Sheddocksley	162	Aberdeen South	42	25	6	0	0	38	0	0	111
Aberdeen	Midstocket / Rosemount	4,537	Aberdeen North	690	681	127	0	0	1,159	0	28	2,685
Aberdeen	Northfield	10,706	Aberdeen North	1,169	2,126	181	0	0	2,785	0	73	6,334
Aberdeen	Tillydrone / Seaton / Old Aberdeen	11,002	Aberdeen North	1,247	2,368	264	0	0	2,539	0	91	6,509
Aberdeenshire	Mid Formartine	3,548	Gordon	1,071	221	240	0	0	894	0	0	2,426
	Total	76,302		13,559	12,033	3,012	0	0	18,642	0	403	47,649

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Aberdeen North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Kirsty Blackman (SNP)
County/Area:	Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate:	76,301
Turnout:	62.4%

Aberdeen North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Aberdeen North: Overview

Introduction